The Tardigrade Growth Hypothesis
Let’s continue our deeper investigation into the critical characteristics of a Tardigrade brand. The second of the ten traits is this: Tardigrade brands have a well-formed growth hypothesis.
So, what is a growth hypothesis? Let’s start with what it’s not. It’s not static. It’s not revenue-centric. And it’s not just a financial plan. A true growth hypothesis is a living, breathing framework that is testable, measurable, and rooted in reality.
It’s built from the bottom up and clearly outlines the key revenue drivers, their related contra-revenue elements, and the investment inputs required to achieve the hypothesized outcomes. These investments include selling expenses, marketing, logistics, acquisition costs, general and administrative overhead, and more. It also defines the capital required to support the arc of growth, including both working and growth capital.
Most importantly, a growth hypothesis lays bare the key underlying assumptions—those that power the growth engine. These assumptions span the entirety of the business: revenue mix, pricing, velocity, contribution margin, COGS, cash flow, and dozens of other drivers.
The goal is to take those assumptions to market and validate them. That’s what makes a growth hypothesis live. It gets smarter with time. The market serves as a feedback loop, continually informing and refining the hypothesis. This process, which we’ll dig into in the next article, aligns directly with the practice of growth hacking.
Rather than spending the rest of this article on the mechanics, let’s explore why having a growth hypothesis is essential to building a Tardigrade brand.
Too often, founders begin with conclusions instead of assumptions. Conclusions are beliefs masquerading as truths. Assumptions, on the other hand, are questions waiting to be answered. That may sound like a subtle difference, but it represents a major shift in mindset.
Conclusions create expectations. Expectations can blind you until things go wrong, which is dangerous for any early-stage business.
Assumptions spark curiosity. You’re actively looking for answers. You’re adjusting, adapting, evolving. That posture builds resilience and agility—two core traits of a Tardigrade brand.
A well-formed growth hypothesis also creates a broader field of vision. By mapping the trajectory of growth alongside anticipated expenses and capital needs, you gain early visibility into the brick walls and cliffs that inevitably arise on the entrepreneurial journey. Seeing them doesn’t mean you can avoid them—it just means you’re prepared. You can plan. You can pivot. You can leap when others stumble.
I’ve written elsewhere about how to construct a growth hypothesis. Today, my hope is simpler: that you make it a priority. A strong, testable, and measurable growth hypothesis is one of the most powerful tools an entrepreneur can build. It sharpens your questions. It widens your perspective. And it helps you stay nimble in a world that demands nothing less.
